Monday, August 18, 2014
Modoki El Nino. You heard it here first.
I heard it first in a post earlier here several days ago:
http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/
The Weather Centre
Monday, August 18, 2014
Modoki El Nino Gaining Control; Winter Outlook Grows Colder
It appears that a Central-Based, or Modoki El Nino is now gaining control, resulting in the outlook for this winter growing colder.
The image above, provided by the JAMSTEC agency, shows typical sea surface temperature anomalies during a Modoki El Nino. The presence of this Modoki Nino is clearly shown by the positive anomalies in the central portion of the Pacific, hence the interchangeability between Modoki and Central-Based El Nino. During the Modoki Nino, cooler than normal SST anomalies tend to appear offshore Ecuador, something we'll discuss a little later in this post. Looking towards the north Pacific, predominantly warm SST anomalies are observed, from the Sea of Japan, to the Bering Sea, to the Gulf of Alaska. Warm water anomalies are also recorded near Baja California.
Out in the Atlantic, warmer than normal waters surround Greenland and are placed into western Europe, with cool water providing a separation between that mass of warmth, and the second body of warm water juxtaposed near the Canadian Maritimes. The Indian Ocean also exhibits a slightly negative Indian Ocean Dipole signal (identified by cold water near Somalia and warm water near India) during Modoki El Ninos.
Let's now compare this typical Modoki set-up with today's SST anomalies.
Taking a look around the globe, we can identify several points of interest and discussion when comparing the Modoki composite image, and the daily SST anomalies from August 17th. Beginning in the Pacific, we see warm water anomalies off the coast of Ecuador, and cool anomalies in the central Pacific, basically opposite of a Modoki set-up. We'll dive deeper into that a little later in this post.
http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/polar-vortex-july-chill-summer-cooldown-weather-20140710
The Weather Channel
'Polar Vortex' in July? Not So Fast. But It Will Be Chilly in Midwest, Northeast Next Week
By Terrell Johnson and Chrissy Warrilow Published: Jul 11, 2014, 7:59 AM EDT weather.com
Unseasonably cold weather is forecast next week across the Midwest and Northeast, parts of which are expected to see temperatures as low as the 40s and 50s -- and that's rare for July.
Naturally, this has media commentators speculating that the much-vaunted "polar vortex," which was blamed for this winter's brutally cold and snowy weather across much of the eastern U.S., has returned.
http://www.e-reading.org.ua/bookreader.php/71211/Clancy_-_Rainbow_Six.html
Tom Clancy
Rainbow Six
CHAPTER 23
OVERWATCH
More El Nino stuff, Ding saw with a snort. Once it had just been called weather, but then some damned oceanographer had discovered that the warm/cold water mix off the coast of South America changed every few years, and that when it happened the world's climate changed a little bit here and there, and the media had latched onto it, delighted, so it seemed, to have another label to put on things they lacked the education to understand. Now they said that the current rendition of the "El Nino Effect" was unusually hot weather in Australia.
"Mr. C, you're old enough to remember. What did they say before this crap?"
"They called it unusually hot, cold, or seasonable weather, tried to tell you if it was going to be hot, cold, sunny, or rainy the next day, and then they told you about the baseball scores." With rather less accuracy on the weather side, Clark didn't say.
http://www.snpp.com/episodes/2F05.html
Lisa on Ice
Original airdate in N.A.: 13-Nov-94
Everyone but Marge sits in front of the TV.
Announcer: It's "Channel Six Action News."
[several explosions are shown]
Bart: Ah, Action News. The last place an impressionable kid can go for TV violence.
Announcer: And now, here's your Action Anchor[tm], Kent Brockman.
Kent: [jumping in, panting] Hello, I'm Kent Brockman!
Kent: Let's check the death count from the killer storm bearing down on us like a shotgun full of snow.
Weatherman: Well, Kent, as of now the death count is zero. But it _is_ ready to shoot right up.
Kent: Oh my God.
- posted by H.V.O.M - Kerry Wayne Burgess 3:51 PM Pacific Time Spokane Valley Washington USA Monday 18 August 2014
